ISIS: ‘A Very, Very Serious Crisis’

Henri J. Barkey, the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor of International Relations, is the author of 60 articles and book chapters and the author, coauthor or editor of seven books and monographs. He appears regularly on CNN, PBS, BBC and NPR to share his expertise on the Middle East, Turkey, the Kurds and Iraq, and contributes articles to The Washington Post, The Los Angeles Times, The American Interest, The Wall Street Journal and other journals. He served as a Policy Planning Staff Member with the U.S. State Department from 1998 to 2000.

Barkey met in August with Bulletin associate editor Kurt Pfitzer to discuss recent events in Syria, Turkey and Iraq, including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)

IN ADDITION TO BEHEADING AMERICAN JOURNALISTS, ISIS HAS KILLED THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE, INCLUDING CHRISTIANS, SHI’ITE MUSLIMS AND OTHER RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC MINORITIES. IS ISIS MORE VICIOUS THAN AL-QAEDA?

ISIS and al-Qaeda are cut from the same cloth; they are one and the same when it comes to ideology. They differ on tactics, but ISIS is an outgrowth of al-Qaeda. Paradoxically, if they exist as two separate organizations, it has much to do with the personal ambitions of leaders, especially the ISIS leader.

DOES ISIS REPRESENT A GREATER THREAT TO THE MIDDLE EAST AND TO THE WEST THAN AL-QAEDA DOES?

In some way this is the case. ISIS is from the region, whereas al-Qaeda remains ensconced in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Al-Qaeda works through affiliates. ISIS is not only home-grown in the Middle East, but it is primarily focused on this region.

This is indeed a very, very serious crisis. ISIS fighters are coming from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf and also from Europe, Russia and the U.S. One guy from Florida went to Syria, came back to the U.S. and then returned to Syria and blew himself up. He could have done it here. And an attack in May on the Jewish Museum of Brussels killed four people; it was committed by a Frenchman who had been fighting with jihadists in Syria.

HAVE THE U.S. AND IRAQ BEEN CAUGHT FLAT-FOOTED BY ISIS’S RAPID GROWTH AND MILITARY SUCCESSES?

Many people have been warning for a long time that something like [ISIS] would happen. The two Sunni jihadist movements [in Syria and in Iraq] were becoming one. The border between Syria and Iraq has disappeared. Iraqi Shi’ite militants have been fighting in Syria for [President Bashar al-Assad], while Iraqi Sunnis are fighting in Syria against Assad. The Iraqi and U.S. governments were completely unprepared for what emerged. This was a failure of imagination.

Part of the reason the conflagration is happening is that the central Iraqi government under outgoing prime minister Nuri al-Maliki really messed up…He pushed out the people who balanced his sectarian interests and had genuine support in other, but primarily the Sunni, communities…Maliki is now gone [but] he’s done so much damage that it will take a long time to repair the institutions that he weakened.

The U.S. played this badly too. President Obama didn’t seem interested, and the White House did not warn him of this impending development…The first two national security advisers to Obama [James L. Jones and Thomas E. Donilon] were not foreign policy thinkers; they were completely unprepared for the job at hand.

WHAT ARE THE REASONS FOR ISIS’SUCCESS?

There are a plethora of militias in Syria…ISIS has emerged as the strongest primarily because of its successes in Iraq, especially its defeat of the Iraqi military and the seizing of so much off-the-shelf military equipment in Mosul…Because of this, it attracts other jihadists. Paradoxically, the U.S., by targeting ISIS, adds to its notoriety and cachet.

WHAT ARE ISIS’S CHANCES OF BUILDING ON ITS TERRITORIAL GAINS AND ESTABLISHING AN ISLAMIC STATE?

ISIS is going to be defeated but not eliminated altogether. This will happen in Iraq first, where the Iraqi Army and Kurdish forces will reorganize. ISIS is in a much better situation in Syria primarily because the Assad regime has deliberately refused to engage it and because of all the equipment it has moved from Iraq. ISIS is far stronger in Syria than the so-called moderate opposition. We won’t understand the repercussions of what’s happening now for a long time. What’s going to replace ISIS, how are Iraq and Syria going to be organized—these are questions without answers. We cannot predict these things.

PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS STATED HIS DESIRE FOR A LIMITED U.S. MILITARY ROLE WITH REGARD TO ISIS. IS THIS REALISTIC?

Yes. Obama ran for president on a platform that opposed our involvement in the Iraq war and favored getting out of Iraq. He is against putting boots on the ground. Mission creep in this conflict is a distinct possibility. In principle, it should not happen here because this is a fight that the Iraqis have to win, not us. We can’t fight this one for them as this would have to involve tens of thousands of American troops.

YOU HAVE WRITTEN OF AN -ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR. PLEASE EXPLAIN.

A huge number of people moved from the countryside into the cities because of the drought [that afflicted more than half of Syria from 2006-11] and because of changes in the usage of the rivers upstream. The fighting, and everything related to it, further undermined the water infrastructure. It takes years to rebuild an infrastructure. Even if peace were to be at hand tomorrow, it will take a generation for these places to recover and rebuild. People have not paid enough attention to this.

WHAT ROLE HAS TURKEY PLAYED IN THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA?

The Turks have facilitated the jihadists coming and going in and out of Syria. They had no other choice than to back the opposition to Assad, but like everyone else they miscalculated and thought the Assad regime would not last. Turkey can shut off the influx of jihadists and flow of arms to them…The Syrian regime may appear to be a benefactor were this to happen…However, it is hard to see Assad remaining in power very long.